ENSEMBLE WAVE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS BASED ON CMIP5 MODELS

Nobuhito Mori,Cowclip Project,Mark Hemer,Xiaolan L Wang,Joao Morim

doi:10.9753/icce.v36v.waves.23

Abstract

A warming climate has the potential to not only raise sea level but also exacerbate coastal hazards due to changes in storm frequency and intensity. Along open coasts where wave energy is often the dominant process dictating shoreline positions, changes in mean and extreme wave conditions are likely to alter long-term geomorphic evolution patterns. The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) is to provide infrastructure to support a systematic, community-based framework that allows for validation and inter-comparison of wave projections. Here, the primary aims are to 1) present quantitative evaluations of projected global scale wave conditions and 2) to present the framework and preliminary results of regional wave modeling that will provide projections of nearshore wave conditions for use in long-term geomorphic change analyzes.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/Y6BEHq5wZXw

Highlights

A warming climate has the potential to raise sea level and exacerbate coastal hazards due to changes in storm frequency and intensity
A growing number of studies have considered how the global wave climate may respond to climate change using Global Climate Models (GCMs) under multiple climate forcing scenarios
The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) is to provide infrastructure to support a systematic, community-based framework that allows for validation and inter-comparison of wave projections, and to make these freely accessible to the scientific community supported by WMO

Summary

Introduction

A warming climate has the potential to raise sea level and exacerbate coastal hazards due to changes in storm frequency and intensity. A growing number of studies have considered how the global wave climate may respond to climate change using Global Climate Models (GCMs) under multiple climate forcing scenarios. These studies have been carried out independently, using different methods to estimate future wave conditions.

Results

Conclusion