Ensemble Variance Reduction Methods for Stochastic Mixed-Integer Programming and their Application to the Stochastic Facility Location Problem

Abstract

Sample average approximation (SAA), the standard approach to stochastic mixed-integer programming, does not provide guidance for cases with limited computational budgets. In such settings, variance reduction is critical in identifying good decisions. This paper explores two closely related ensemble methods to determine effective decisions with a probabilistic guarantee. (a) The first approach recommends a decision by coordinating aggregation in the space of decisions as well as aggregation of objective values. This combination of aggregation methods generalizes the bagging method and the “compromise decision” of stochastic linear programming. Combining these concepts, we propose a stopping rule that provides an upper bound on the probability of early termination. (b) The second approach applies efficient computational budget allocation for objective function evaluation and contributes to identifying the best solution with a predicted lower bound on the probability of correct selection. It also reduces the variance of the upper bound estimate at optimality. Furthermore, it adaptively selects the evaluation sample size. Both approaches provide approximately optimal solutions even in cases with a huge number of scenarios, especially when scenarios are generated by using oracles/simulators. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods via extensive computational results for “megascale” (extremely large scale) stochastic facility location problems. History: Accepted by Pascal Van Hentenryck, Area Editor for Computational Modeling: Methods & Analysis. Funding: This work was supported by The Office of Naval Research [Grant N00014-20-1-2077] and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-20-1-0006]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2021.0324 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2021.0324 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .