Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations

Abstract

Abstract Ensemble simulations made using a coupled atmospheric dynamic model and a probabilistic Lagrangian puff dispersion model were employed in a forensic analysis of the transport and dispersion of a toxic gas that may have been released near Al Muthanna, Iraq, during the Gulf War. The ensemble study had two objectives, the first of which was to determine the sensitivity of the calculated dosage fields to the choices that must be made about the configuration of the atmospheric dynamic model. In this test, various choices were used for model physics representations and for the large-scale analyses that were used to construct the model initial and boundary conditions. The second study objective was to examine the dispersion model's ability to use ensemble inputs to predict dosage probability distributions. Here, the dispersion model was used with the ensemble mean fields from the individual atmospheric dynamic model runs, including the variability in the individual wind fields, to generate dosage probab...