Ensemble simulations of the cold European winter of 2005‐2006

Abstract

AbstractThere is only limited understanding of the processes driving year‐to‐year variability in European winter climate and the skill of seasonal forecasts for Europe in winter is generally low. The winter of 2005‐2006 is a useful case‐study because it was the coldest winter in large parts of western Europe for over a decade, and the coldest in central England since 1995‐1996. Here, we present results of experiments with a range of general circulation models to investigate the importance of both the Atlantic Ocean and stratospheric circulation in producing the unusually cold winter of 2005‐2006. We use models with different combinations of horizontal and stratospheric vertical resolution, allowing the sensitivity of the response to model formulation to be tested. The response to Atlantic sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies is improved in a more recent model with higher horizontal resolution. The results show that both Atlantic SSTs and the January 2006 sudden stratospheric warming are likely to have contributed to the cold 2005‐2006 European winter. © Crown Copyright 2008. Reproduced with the permission of HMSO. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.