Ensemble of small models as a tool for alien invasive species management planning: evaluation of Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) under Mediterranean island conditions

Abstract

Ecological niche models have proved to be a powerful tool in assessing invasiveness risk of alien species, allowing the optimization of control strategies. Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) is an invasive species with strong ecological, economical and health impacts in Europe after it was first reported in France in 2004. It was detected for the first time on a Mediterranean island (Mallorca, Balearic Islands, Spain) in 2015, where a single nest was found in the northwest of the island. Immediately, a control plan was implemented. In this study, we analysed 30 occurrence data in Mallorca island to assess the suitability distribution predicted for Mediterranean island conditions using an ensemble of small models. We obtained high values of AUC (0.9165), Somers’ D (0.8331), Boyce (0.7611) and TSS (0.7754) as quality parameters of the final ensembled model. We show for the first time that there are suitable areas where this species can expand and stablish, mainly in steeper slopes and low isothermality zones. Likewise, the distribution suitability of V. velutina for other Mediterranean islands (Ibiza, Formentera, Menorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus) was also explored, showing potentially suitable zones. This study provides valuable information regarding the areas in the Mediterranean islands under risk of invasion, and it could be used by both scientists and managers for an early detection and control of the invasive species due to its cost-effectiveness in terms of conservation.