Abstract
The quantitative analysis of the disaster effect on water supply systems can provide useful information for water supply system management. In this study, a total disaster index (TDI) was developed using open-source public data in 419 water treatment plants in Korea with 23 input variables. The TDI quantifies the possible effects or damage caused by three major disasters (typhoons, heavy rain, and earthquakes) on water supply systems. The four components (regional factor, risk factor, urgency factor, and response and recovery factor) were calculated using input variables to determine the disaster index (DI) of each disaster. The weight of the input variables was determined using principal component analysis (PCA), and the weights of the DI of three natural disasters and four components used to calculate the TDI were determined by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Specifically, two ensemble machine learning models, random forest (RF) and XGBoost (XGB), were used to develop models to predict the TDI. Both models predicted the TDI with the coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error-observations standard deviation ratio of 0.8435 and 0.3957 for the RF model and 0.8629 and 0.3703 for the XGB model, respectively. The relative importance analysis suggests that the number of input variables can be minimized, which improves the models’ practical applicability.
Highlights
Various natural disasters, such as floods and earthquakes, cause considerable damage to water supply systems
Total 23 input variables for the development of disaster index (DI) were identified from open-source public statistical data
The frequency of warning advisories of natural disasters was calculated at each water treatment plant from the sum of the three variables in Table 3 (i.e., RAIN, SWIND, and TYPHOON)
Summary
Various natural disasters, such as floods and earthquakes, cause considerable damage to water supply systems. This damage includes the destruction of plants, intake systems, pipelines, and electric systems, and the consequent interruption of water supply to the public [1]. Water 2020, 12, 3195 damage to water supply systems caused by natural disasters is important for proper management and decision-making processes to prevent and restore the damage caused by natural disasters [2,3]. There have been many efforts to develop quantitative and indicator-based assessments, such as the comprehensive disaster resilience index (CDRI) [5,6], there is no universal standard for the measurement of disaster and related consequences [7]. A reliable disaster resilience framework with unified terminology and its quantitative evaluation would be an important tool in the decision-making processes for both policymakers and engineering professionals [8]
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