Ensemble learning of daily river discharge modeling for two watersheds with different climates

Abstract

AbstractIn order to reduce the uncertainties and improve the river discharge modeling accuracy, several topography‐based hydrological models (TOPMODEL), generated by different combinations of parameters, were incorporated into an ensemble learning framework with the boosting method. Both the Baohe River Basin (BRB) with humid climate, and the Linyi River Basin (LRB) with semi‐arid climate were chosen for model testing. Observed daily precipitation, pan evaporation and stream flow data were used for model development and testing. Different Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients, the coefficient of determination and the Root Mean Square Error were adopted to implement a comprehensive assessment on model performances. Testing results indicated that ensemble learning method could improve the modeling accuracy by comparing with the best single TOPMODEL. During the validation periods, the boosting method could increase the modeling accuracy by 9 and 16% for BRB and LRB, respectively. The ensemble method significantly narrowed the gap of model performances over watersheds with different climatic conditions. Hence, using the ensemble learning to enhance the feasibility of hydrological models for different climatic regions is promising.