Ensemble Learning for Nuclear Power Generation Forecasting Based on Deep Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression

Abstract

Forecasting nuclear energy production is essential for market operations such as security, economic efficiency, resource optimization, grid stability, and the integration of renewable energy sources. Forecasting approaches allow nuclear power plants to operate consistently, contributing to the overall reliability and long-term viability of the energy system. It is noted that energy systems researchers are increasingly interested in machine learning models used to face the challenge of time series forecasting. This study evaluates a hybrid ensemble learning of three time series forecasting models including least-squares support vector regression, gated recurrent unit, and long short-term memory models applied to nuclear power time series forecasting on the dataset of French power plants from 2009 to 2020. Furthermore, this research evaluates forecasting results in which approaches are directed towards the optimized RreliefF (Robust relief Feature) selection algorithm using a hyperparameter optimization based on tree-structured Parzen estimator and following an ensemble learning approach, showing promising results in terms of performance metrics. The suggested ensemble learning model, which combines deep learning and the RreliefF algorithm using a hold-out, outperforms the other nine forecasting models in this study according to performance criteria such as 75% for the coefficient of determination, a root squared error average of 0.108, and an average absolute error of 0.080.