Ensemble learning for glioma patients overall survival prediction using pre-operative MRIs

Abstract

Objective: Gliomas are the most common primary brain tumors. Approximately 70% of the glioma patients diagnosed with glioblastoma have an averaged overall survival (OS) of only ∼16 months. Early survival prediction is essential for treatment decision-making in glioma patients. Here we proposed an ensemble learning approach to predict the post-operative OS of glioma patients using only pre-operative MRIs. Approach: Our dataset was from the Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention Brain Tumor Segmentation challenge 2020, which consists of multimodal pre-operative MRI scans of 235 glioma patients with survival days recorded. The backbone of our approach was a Siamese network consisting of twinned ResNet-based feature extractors followed by a 3-layer classifier. During training, the feature extractors explored traits of intra and inter-class by minimizing contrastive loss of randomly paired 2D pre-operative MRIs, and the classifier utilized the extracted features to generate labels with cost defined by cross-entropy loss. During testing, the extracted features were also utilized to define distance between the test sample and the reference composed of training data, to generate an additional predictor via K-NN classification. The final label was the ensemble classification from both the Siamese model and the K-NN model. Main results: Our approach classifies the glioma patients into 3 OS classes: long-survivors (>15 months), mid-survivors (between 10 and 15 months) and short-survivors (<10 months). The performance is assessed by the accuracy (ACC) and the area under the curve (AUC) of 3-class classification. The final result achieved an ACC of 65.22% and AUC of 0.81. Significance: Our Siamese network based ensemble learning approach demonstrated promising ability in mining discriminative features with minimal manual processing and generalization requirement. This prediction strategy can be potentially applied to assist timely clinical decision-making.