Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of a Severe Mesoscale Convective System Using Different Choices of Microphysics Schemes

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AbstractA Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)-based ensemble data assimilation system is used to produce storm-scale analyses and forecasts of the 4–5 July 2003 severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) over Indiana and Ohio, which produced numerous high wind reports across the two states. Single-Doppler observations are assimilated into a 36-member, storm-scale ensemble during the developing stage of the MCS with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach encoded in the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The storm-scale ensemble is constructed from mesoscale EnKF analyses produced from the assimilation of routinely available observations from land and marine stations, rawinsondes, and aircraft, in an attempt to better represent the complex mesoscale environment for this event. Three EnKF simulations were performed using the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) one- and two-moment and Thompson microphysical schemes. All three experiments produce a linear convective segment at the final analysis time, similar to the observed system at 2300 UTC 4 July 2003. The higher-order schemes—in particular, the Thompson scheme—are better able to produce short-range forecasts of both the convective and stratiform components of the observed bowing MCS, and produce the smallest temperature errors when comparing surface observations and dropsonde data to corresponding model data. Only the higher-order microphysical schemes produce any appreciable rear-to-front flow in the stratiform precipitation region that trailed the simulated systems. Forecast performance by the three microphysics schemes is discussed in context of differences in microphysical composition produced in the stratiform precipitation regions of the rearward expanding MCSs.