Abstract
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of several non-Annex I countries mention agroforestry but mostly without associated mitigation target. The absence of reliable data, including on existing agroforestry practices and their carbon storage, partially constrains the target setting. In this paper, we estimate the mitigation potential of agroforestry carbon sequestration in Vietnam using a nationwide agroforestry database and carbon data from the literature. Sequestered carbon was estimated for existing agroforestry systems and for areas into which these systems can be expanded. Existing agroforestry systems in Vietnam cover over 0.83 million hectares storing a 1346 ± 92 million ton CO2 equivalent including above-, belowground, and soil carbon. These systems could be expanded to an area of 0.93–2.4 million hectares. Of this expansion area, about 10% is considered highly suitable for production, with a carbon sequestration potential of 2.3–44 million ton CO2 equivalent over the period 2021–2030. If neglecting agroforestry’s potential for modifying micro-climates, climate change can reduce the highly suitable area of agroforestry and associated carbon by 34–48% in 2050. Agroforestry can greatly contribute to Vietnam’s 2021–2030 NDC, for example, to offset the greenhouse gas emissions of the agriculture sector.
Highlights
In 2015, all signatory countries of the landmark Paris Agreement pledged to reduce their national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhance resilience to climate change
Most signatory countries submitted their first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 2016 [1], with the option to amend before a final submission in 2020
Because we only considered the main perennial crop component of each agroforestry system for expansion in the land suitability analysis, the impact of future climate was assessed for the main crop component only to represent the impact on each agroforestry system, neglecting the potential of agroforestry to modify micro-climates through an integration of multiple plant components that can reduce the intensity of climate change impact
Summary
In 2015, all signatory countries of the landmark Paris Agreement pledged to reduce their national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhance resilience to climate change. Contributions (NDCs) are the blueprints outlining mitigation and adaptation efforts, and the Paris. NDCs describe post-2020 climate programs, and parties can prioritize sectors which substantially contribute to their national emissions. Most signatory countries submitted their first NDCs to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 2016 [1], with the option to amend before a final submission in 2020. Agriculture features prominently in the NDCs of non-Annex I countries, which are mostly developing countries [2]. About 40% of 148 non-Annex I countries include mitigation measures for the agriculture sector in their NDCs, with half of these mentioning integrated systems such as agroforestry [3]. The NDCs of many countries do not elaborate these mitigation measures into concrete actions and associated targets
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