Enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services under extreme events in socio-hydrological systems: A spatio-temporal analysis

Abstract

Due to the adverse impacts of severe droughts on various aspects of human life and ecosystem services (ESs), the spatio-temporal assessment of the resilience of ESs under droughts is essential. In this paper, we propose a new methodology for assessing ESs-based resilience, taking into account the seven resilience principles: a) redundancy and diversity, b) managing connectivity, c) managing slow variables and their feedback, d) complex adaptive system (CAS) thinking, e) experimentation and learning, f) broadening participation, and g) polycentric governance. These principles enable us to consider the main social, political, hydrological, economic, and environmental aspects concerning resilience which have been overlooked in previous studies. The methodology is evaluated by applying it to Zarrinehroud River Basin (ZRB) in north-western Iran. A set of qualitative and quantitative criteria and their sub-criteria are proposed for quantifying the ES-based resilience and generating time series of resilience against severe droughts in several sub-basins in the study area. To evaluate the criteria and sub-criteria, the required data are derived from calibrated SWAT and MODSIM models as well as experts’ judjments. The time series of ES-based resilience under 128 Water and Environmental Resources Management (WERM) scenarios (for enhancing agricultural practices, altering and modernizing irrigation methods, improving irrigation network and drainage facilities) and Climate Change (CC) scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP 8.5) are derived for each sub-basin based on short-term (2020–2049) and long-term (2020–2098) periods. The low resilience values (0.53–0.6) of all sub-basins under the base management scenario (the status quo scenario (SC0)) illustrate the need for implementing some projects to enhance the ESs in the study area. The results show that the WERM scenario SC12346 can improve the values of the resilience criterion in sub-basins up to 0.85 and reduce the vulnerability of the study area to droughts. By evaluating all management scenarios, scenario SC12346 is reported as the best scenario, since it can significantly increase the resilience of all sub-basins against extreme droughts with an acceptable cost of 636 million US dollars compared to other scenarios. Under this WERM scenario, the resilience values of sub-basins increase up to 40%. This scenario suggests implementing a set of projects such as improving irrigation networks and drainage facilities.