Enhancing Students' Understanding of Risk and Geologic Hazards Using a Dartboard Model

Abstract

Magnitude-frequency relationships of natural hazards can be expressed in a visual form through a dartboard model. The rings of the dartboard can be drawn to represent magnitude, exceedance probability, average recurrence interval, or any other relevant statistic. Dartboards can be constructed from magnitude-frequency functions or from historical data, making it possible to model a wide variety of hazards. The dartboards can be used to engage students at different levels of preparation, in different contexts, and for different lengths of time: “playing” the dart game may consist of conducting a thought experiment, actually throwing at a physical dartboard, or simulating events based on a computer program. Playing the dart game helps students to understand how a magnitude-frequency relationship results from a sequence of events. Dartboards mitigate the misconception that processes occur periodically (e.g., “the 100-year flood”) by emphasizing the random nature of hazards. The dart game also helps students to visualize the long-term consequences of living in a hazardous location. Dart games provide a context in which geoscience students can learn about statistics, simulations, and the testing of models against data.