Enhancing Solar Energy Generation: A Comprehensive Machine Learning-Based PV Prediction and Fault Analysis System for Real-Time Tracking and Forecasting

Abstract

This paper addresses a notable gap in the field of photovoltaic system forecasting by introducing the Machine Learning-based PV Prediction and Fault Analysis System (ML-PVPFAS). This framework is designed to optimize the decomposition of variational systems automatically, using a multi-objective intelligent optimization method to establish its weight. The paper evaluates a range of Machine Learning (ML) and Ensemble Learning (EL) techniques for diagnosing faults in PV arrays, with a primary focus on identifying and categorizing complex faults that could affect these arrays. These faults encompass multiple anomalies and defects with similar current-voltage curves, which have not been previously examined. The analysis of prediction scores reveals that the ML-PVPFAS approach outperforms other methods, with the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) at 4.93, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) at 4.64, high Accuracy at 90.31%, Precision at 93.60%, a strong Pearson Correlation Coefficient of 0.90, and a fast Computation Time of 77.64 milliseconds. The results suggest that ML-PVPFAS is a dependable and practical algorithm for predicting the power output of PV solar systems, making it a valuable contribution to the field of predictive modeling.