Enhancing safety and reliability in multistory construction: A multi-state system assessment of shoring/reshoring operations using interval-valued belief functions

Abstract

Ensuring safety and reliability in multistory concrete construction necessitates rigorous assessment methodologies capable of addressing the inherent uncertainties of the construction process. This paper introduces a novel reliability assessment methodology for shoring/reshoring (S/R) operations, framed within a multi-state parallel-series system (MSS). Our approach innovatively combines concrete slab capacities, forming system strengths, and construction quality, integrating cost and time efficiencies. Central to our method is the use of Interval Universal Generating Functions (IUGF), which leverage Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory and interval analysis to robustly estimate system reliability under uncertainty. For instance, the model considers concrete strength ranging from 0.72 × 2.1D to 0.96 × 2.1D at different curing stages, producing a system reliability index between 0.63 and 0.76, against a desired threshold of 0.8. This methodology produces interval-valued belief functions that capture a comprehensive range of potential system states and their likelihoods, offering a refined perspective on system safety. An illustrative case study demonstrates the practical application of this methodology in optimizing formwork removal and S/R schedules, significantly enhancing decision-making in construction operations. This paper aligns with the core themes of reliability engineering and system safety by addressing critical safety and reliability issues in complex technological systems through advanced probabilistic safety assessment methods. It significantly enriches the professional discourse by presenting a robust method that can be adapted across various engineering fields facing similar reliability challenges.