Enhancing river flow predictions: Comparative analysis of machine learning approaches in modeling stage-discharge relationship

Abstract

Streamflow, a pivotal variable in water resources management, holds profound significance in shaping the decision-making processes of hydrologic projects. This paper tries to delve into the exploration of the stage-discharge relationship using three machine learning methods (MLMs) namely multi-layer neural networks (MLNN), radial basis neural networks (RBNN), and neuro-fuzzy systems (ANFIS) to predict and simulate mean daily stage-discharge data derived from two monitoring stations, Bulakbasi and Karaozü, Kizilirmak River, Turkey. Root mean square error (RMSE), Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), coefficient of determination (R2), and the Developed Discrepancy Ratio (DDR) metrics were utilized to MLMs' performance assessment. The performance evaluation indices (RMSE, MAEP, R2, DDR) for the preeminent MLNN model applied to Bulakhbashi and Karasu stations were determined as (0.29, 1.57, 0.9998, 17.62) and (1.71, 6.56, 0.9980, 6.65), respectively. The MLNN model contributed to a notable enhancement in the RMSE performance index for the aforementioned stations, exhibiting improvements of 87% and 56%, respectively. These results affirm the MLNN's proficiency in accurately capturing the stage-discharge at both monitoring stations.