Enhancing reliability of consolidation design parameters for residual settlement estimation: a sensitivity analysis approach for existing container yard in Belawan, Medan

Abstract

Data variation in geotechnical engineering poses challenges in setting up reliable design parameters used for design or analysis. This study aims to accommodate the uncertainty of consolidation design parameters, including the compression index (Cc), initial void ratio (e0), and coefficient of consolidation (Cv), to estimate the residual settlement. A case study of Belawan New Container Terminal (BNCT), which consists of two container yards situated in a reclamation area, has been presented in this paper. A robust method employing parameter sensitivity analysis and loading scenario has been carried out. Sensitivity analysis has been performed by considering ranges for each compressibility parameter consisting of low, best, and high estimates. This approach leads to nine analysis scenarios and doubles after including the service load scenario. The results are then compared with available settlement plate and topographic/bathymetric data (pre, during and post-construction). The scenarios that best fit the monitoring data are selected as the basis for estimating the residual settlement over a design lifetime of 50 years. The residual settlement is expected between 1 m and 1.27 m without service load condition, and 1.92 m to 2.46 m. with a service load of 60 kPa (equivalent to six stacks of 20-foot containers).