Enhancing hydrogen production prediction from biomass gasification via data augmentation and explainable AI: A comparative analysis

Abstract

Hydrogen production for clean energy is gaining a foothold, notably through the gasification of biomass. Machine learning aids in its accurate production predictions, yet its opaque nature limits explanation. This study looked into machine learning models' transparency and evaluated the impact of data augmentation on hydrogen production prediction accuracy using a publicly available numerical dataset. Fifteen (15) machine learning regression models including linear and tree-based were evaluated leading to the introduction of a hybrid model. The proposed hybrid model is based on ensemble and averaging techniques in mathematics. The deployed model's prediction was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), the Mean Square Error (MSE), the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), the Root Mean Squared Log Error (RMSLE), and R-squared (R2) based on K-Fold cross-validation. Furthermore, the effect of the grid search, random search, and Bayesian optimization techniques for model hyperparameter optimization were carried out. The evaluated models demonstrate superior predictions and explore data augmentation's potential in refining machine learning accuracy with the proposed hybrid model recording an MAE of 2.187, MSE of 9.788, RMSE of 3.129, R2 of 0.250, MSLE of 0.005, and RMSLE of 0.070 against the original data result of MAE of 2.665, MSE of 11.877, RMSE of 3.446, R2 of 0.112, MSLE of 0.006 and RMSLE of 0.076. However, when the proposed model hyperparameter training setting was optimized, the yielded result improved further with an MAE of 0.044, MSE of 0.040, RMSE of 0.215, R2 of 0.996, MSLE of 0.000 and RMSLE of 0.005. By unraveling the inner workings of black box models using the SHAP, LIME, and ELI-5 interpretable AI models, this study advances hydrogen production prediction using biomass gasification. Insights gained in this study foster the development of more transparent and effective models, aiming for the widespread adoption of sustainable hydrogen energy.