Enhancing flood forecasting and warning precision through multi-task deep learning approaches

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study proposes a multi-task deep learning model for simultaneous prediction of time-series water levels and flood risk thresholds, aiming to enhance flood forecasting precision. Using AutoKeras, single-task and multi-task models were optimised to predict water levels 10–360 min ahead based on 720 min of prior data. The multi-task model consistently outperformed the single-task model across multiple evaluation metrics, including correlation coefficients, RMSE, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, and Kling–Gupta efficiency scores. Real-time prediction tests on actual rainfall events further validated the multi-task model's improved accuracy and applicability in operational flood forecasting. The study demonstrates significant progress in flood prediction methodologies, offering a more comprehensive approach to forecasting and categorising flood incidents.