Enhancing flood event predictions: Multi-objective calibration using gauge and satellite data

Abstract

Rainfall-runoff models are widely used for predicting watershed runoff. The accuracy of the predictions heavily relies on effective model calibration, which is majorly influenced by the employed objective functions that measure the agreement between predictions and real-world observations. In this study, we propose a novel multi-objective calibration approach with the aim of improving the flood event predictions of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model applied to a catchment in the Austrian Alps. To achieve this, we include a total of five carefully selected objective functions into calibration. Three of these objective functions can be regarded as more classical and are roughly based on comparing absolute deviations, square of the residuals, as well as bias, correlation and variability of the flow. Another objective function relies on remote observations of the snow covered area, for which the MODIS Terra (MOD10A1.061) and Aqua (MYD10A1.061) datasets are used. The final objective function measures the differences in peak magnitude and timing for the largest events in the observation period. To showcase the proposed approach’s effectiveness, we compare the calibration and validation results with those obtained by a model that was only calibrated for two runoff objective functions and to carefully selected benchmark cases. The presented study reveals that our approach enhances the model’s capacity to depict snow cover dynamics, a crucial factor in accurately predicting snow-driven flooding events. Additionally, the results underscore that incorporating an error metric targeting magnitude and timing errors of large flood events can enhance the model’s ability to predict peak runoff. The results of this study further suggest that in general a more robust model can be obtained by incorporating additional error metrics that specifically target physical states and individual parts of the runoff curve into model calibration.