Enhancing detection of SARS-CoV-2 re-infections using longitudinal sero-monitoring: demonstration of a methodology in a cohort of people experiencing homelessness in Toronto, Canada

Abstract

BackgroundAccurate estimation of SARS-CoV-2 re-infection is crucial to understanding the connection between infection burden and adverse outcomes. However, relying solely on PCR testing results in underreporting. We present a novel approach that includes longitudinal serologic data, and compared it against testing alone among people experiencing homelessness.MethodsWe recruited 736 individuals experiencing homelessness in Toronto, Canada, between June and September 2021. Participants completed surveys and provided saliva and blood serology samples every three months over 12 months of follow-up. Re-infections were defined as: positive PCR or rapid antigen test (RAT) results > 90 days after initial infection; new serologic evidence of infection among individuals with previous infection who sero-reverted; or increases in anti-nucleocapsid in seropositive individuals whose levels had begun to decrease.ResultsAmong 381 participants at risk, we detected 37 re-infections through PCR/RAT and 98 re-infections through longitudinal serology. The comprehensive method identified 37.4 re-infection events per 100 person-years, more than four-fold more than the rate detected through PCR/RAT alone (9.0 events/100 person-years). Almost all test-confirmed re-infections (85%) were also detectable by longitudinal serology.ConclusionsLongitudinal serology significantly enhances the detection of SARS-CoV-2 re-infections. Our findings underscore the importance and value of combining data sources for effective research and public health surveillance.