Abstract
This research investigates the development of an advanced predictive model aimed at accurately determining the volumetric percentages of water, oil, and gas within oil pipeline systems. Utilizing an innovative approach that incorporates an X-ray source alongside two sodium iodide detectors, the study leverages the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) simulation code to model the behavior of three-phase fluids under varied conditions. The model meticulously simulates various volumetric configurations of water, oil, and gas, resulting in a comprehensive dataset that provides key spectral information. The initial phase involved the extraction of ten temporal and frequency-related features from each detector, culminating in a pool of twenty features. The analytical process then applied the Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm to select the most indicative features for predictive modeling. Out of the initial set, seven features—short-time energy, frequency deviation, relative spectral density, spectral margin, main peak position, spectral coefficient, and frequency intensity—were identified as critical for enhancing model accuracy. These features were subsequently fed into a meticulously structured multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network. This network, designed with two hidden layers containing 20 and 10 neurons, respectively, demonstrated exceptional capability, achieving a root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 0.06 in the prediction of oil and gas volumetric percentages. The study emphasizes the significant impact of integrating refined feature selection techniques and robust neural network architectures on the precision and reliability of volumetric predictions in multiphase flow systems within oil pipelines. This approach not only enhances predictive accuracy but also contributes to more efficient resource management and operational planning in the oil and gas industry.
Published Version
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