Enhancement and external validation of algorithms using diagnosis codes to identify invasive Escherichia coli disease

Abstract

Objective To assess the predictive accuracy of code-based algorithms for identifying invasive Escherichia coli (E. coli) disease (IED) among inpatient encounters in US hospitals. Methods The PINC AI Healthcare Database (10/01/2015–03/31/2020) was used to assess the performance of six published code-based algorithms to identify IED cases among inpatient encounters. Case-confirmed IEDs were identified based on microbiological confirmation of E. coli in a normally sterile body site (Group 1) or in urine with signs of sepsis (Group 2). Code-based algorithm performance was assessed overall, and separately for Group 1 and Group 2 based on sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) and F1 score. The improvement in performance of refinements to the best-performing algorithm was also assessed. Results Among 2,595,983 encounters, 97,453 (3.8%) were case-confirmed IED (Group 1: 60.9%; Group 2: 39.1%). Across algorithms, specificity and NPV were excellent (>97%) for all but one algorithm, but there was a trade-off between sensitivity and PPV. The algorithm with the most balanced performance characteristics included diagnosis codes for: (1) infectious disease due to E. coli OR (2) sepsis/bacteremia/organ dysfunction combined with unspecified E. coli infection and no other concomitant non-E. coli invasive disease (sensitivity: 56.9%; PPV: 56.4%). Across subgroups, the algorithms achieved lower algorithm performance for Group 2 (sensitivity: 9.9%–61.1%; PPV: 3.8%–16.0%). Conclusions This study assessed code-based algorithms to identify IED during inpatient encounters in a large US hospital database. Such algorithms could be useful to identify IED in healthcare databases that lack information on microbiology data.