Enhanced SWAT calibration through intelligent range-based parameter optimization

Abstract

Hydrological models are vital tools in environmental management. Weaknesses in model robustness for hydrological parameters transfer uncertainties to the model outputs. For streamflow, the optimized parameters are the primary source of uncertainty. A reliable calibration approach that reduces prediction uncertainty in model simulations is crucial for enhancing model robustness and reliability. The optimization of parameter ranges is a key aspect of parameter calibration, yet there is a lack of literature addressing the optimization of parameter ranges in hydrological models. In this paper, we introduce a parameter calibration strategy that applies a clustering technique, specifically the Self-Organizing Map (SM), to intelligently navigate the parameter space during the calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for monthly streamflow simulation in the Baishan Basin, Jilin Province, China. We selected the representative algorithm, the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), from the commonly used SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs for comparison. We developed three schemes: SUFI-2, SUFI-2-Narrowing Down (SUFI-2-ND), and SM. Multiple diagnostic error metrics were used to compare simulation accuracy and prediction uncertainty. Among all schemes, SM outperformed the others in describing watershed streamflow, particularly excelling in the simulation of spring snowmelt runoff (baseflow period). Additionally, the prediction uncertainty was effectively controlled, demonstrating the SM's adaptability and reliability in the interval optimization process. This provides managers with more credible prediction results, highlighting its potential as a valuable calibration tool in hydrological modeling.