Enhanced greenhouse climate change and its potential effect on selected fauna of south-eastern Australia: A trend analysis

Abstract

It has been predicted that enhanced greenhouse climate change will modify the global climate and consequently cause large-scale changes to the distribution of flora and fauna. This study examined the potential effect of enhanced greenhouse climate change on the distribution of 42 species of fauna of south-eastern Australia. The best available information regarding faunal distributions and predictive models for bioclimatic ranges was used in conjunction with the accepted enhanced greenhouse climate scenarios for 1990. More recent developments that refine the potential climatic changes are discussed in relation to the analysis. The 42 species of fauna were selected from the major Victorian bioclimatic regions and ecosystems and from species considered most at risk from enhanced greenhouse climate change. Most were species with a threatened conservation status. The results indicate that 41 undergo a reduction in bioclimatic range in response to climatic warming, the most extreme response being the extinction of bioclimatic range. A broadscale subcontinental analysis of the potential effects on faunal distribution is presented.