Enhanced GMCR model for resolving conflicts in a transboundary wetland

Abstract

This research proposes an enhanced Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) with application to an international wetland. The integrated model enhances GMCR using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methods to extract the relative preferences of decision-makers in conflict resolution. The Hawizeh/Hoor-Al-Azim Wetland is facing increased dust storms in recent decades which are attributed to drying up of Mesopotamian wetlands, creating the potential for conflicts among riparian countries. The proposed integrated approach was applied in the Hawizeh/Hoor-Al-Azim Wetland fed by the Tigris and Karkheh Rivers. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria are located in the Tigris River basin, and the Karkheh River originates from the Zagros Mountains in western Iran. The results indicate that the achievement of an environmental balance depends on cooperation between Iran and Iraq to persuade Turkey to release the environmental flow to the wetland. Three strong equilibrium points were identified among 15 feasible states: (a) establishing a regional agreement among Iran, Iraq, and Turkey to reduce the effects of conflicts in the Hawizeh/Hoor-Al-Azim Wetland; (b) coalition of Iran and Iraq to motivate Turkey to reduce water withdrawal from the Tigris River; and finally, (c) exchanging water release for commodity market in Iran and Iraq for Turkey. In general, the economic cooperation among countries can be used as a negotiation tool to solve water conflicts in international wetlands.