Enhanced Assessment of Water Quality and Pollutant Source Apportionment Using APCS-MLR and PMF Models in the Upper Reaches of the Tarim River

Abstract

To evaluate the pollution sources and dynamics of the upper reaches of the Tarim River, 10 typical sampling points were selected, and 23 water quality parameters from 2020 to 2022 were analyzed using one-way analysis of variance, the comprehensive Water Quality Identification Index (WQI), and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The pollution status, sources, and contribution rates of water quality were investigated using the Absolute Principal Component-Multiple Linear Regression Model (APCS-MLR) and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). The results indicated that the water quality parameters of dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxygen demand (CODMn), biochemical oxygen demand after 5 days (BOD5), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), fluoride ions (F-), and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N) in the upper reaches of the Tarim River exceed standards, with noticeable spatial variations observed for each parameter. The water quality evaluation grades in the upper reaches of Tarim River primarily indicate “moderate” and “good” levels, with DO, TN, NH3-N, and electrical conductivity (EC) being the key parameters influencing variations in water quality. The source analysis results from APCS-MLR and PMF yielded similar outcomes, identifying six potential pollution sources. Among these, soil weathering, livestock and poultry breeding, and agricultural activities exhibited higher contribution rates. Specifically, the contribution rates for these sources according to APCS-MLR were 44.11%, 19.63%, and 11.67%, respectively; while according to PMF they are 24.08%, 17.88%, and 27.54%, respectively. Furthermore, industrial pollution sources contributed at a rate of 6.01% according to APCS-MLR, while urban living sources contributed at a rate of 2.13%. However, based on PMF analysis, the contribution rates for industrial pollution sources increased significantly to 16.71%. Additionally, APCS-MLR identified natural sources as contributing at a rate of 16.45%, whereas PMF suggested that a combination of agricultural activities and natural sources contributed at a lower rate of only 9.52%. In conclusion, the water quality within the upper reaches of the Tarim River is predominantly satisfactory. Nonetheless, localized pollution, primarily attributable to human activities, presents a substantial challenge. These observations provide critical insights into improving and protecting the fragile water quality of the Tarim River.