Abstract
The objective this study was to analyze the dry and wet spell of the main and small rainy season in the eastern part of Ethiopia, West Haraghe. Markov Chain model was employed to investigate the extent and characteristics of the dry and wet spell in the study sites. Accordingly, the results exhibited that the chance of having wet dekades is relatively higher (greater than 50% of probability of occurrences) during last of June to the start of October for all the study locations (Hirna, Asebe Teferi and Meios). The probability of having wet after wet is also fairly enough that farmers can take significant agricultural operations, like planting during the start of the season, second dekade of June. The probability of having wet during belg is however very low (usually less than 40%). But the soil moisture from the season could help farmers start plough earlier so that farmers can have the full advantage of the main rainy season, without wasting moisture for other activities. Key words: dry, probability, Markov chain, probability, spell
Highlights
Precipitation modeling is very important for planning and management of water resources and has many practical applications in engineering and agriculture
The probability of rain during decade, if rain occurs this decade known as conditional probability of a wet decade preceded by a wet decade (PWW), and the probability of rain decade being wet, if this decade is dry known as conditional probability of a wet week preceded by a dry decade (PWD)
These dry air masses originate either from the Saharan anticyclone and /or from the ridge of high pressure extending into Ethiopia from Arabian land and from the large high surface pressure over central Asia and, Siberia (NMSA, 1996; Gonfa, 1996). b) Belg: Belg is small rainy season that covers the period from midFebruary to mid-May
Summary
Precipitation modeling is very important for planning and management of water resources and has many practical applications in engineering and agriculture. The majority of hydrological methods for precipitation modeling try to represent the generating mechanism of the physical process. These initial and conditional probability would help in determining the relative chance of occurrence of a given amount of rain fall and the chance of any threshold amount of rain fall depends on the purpose for which the different probability may be computed (Virmani, 1976)
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