Abstract
Climate change will cause Sub-Saharan tropical countries to experience a disproportionate increase in the number of extremely hot days when compared to Western countries with more temperate climates. We use the High Occupational Temperature Health and Productivity Suppression (HOTHAPS) model to estimate the potential impact of rising temperatures on worker productivity in different climate regions within Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, and Kenya under varying future climate change scenarios. Using population data obtained from the International Labor Organization, we also estimate productivity losses at a country-wide level. We project large inter-country and intra-country disparities in productivity losses due to varying climatic conditions and local geography. Populations living in lower elevations or in more tropical and arid zones will experience higher productivity losses than those at higher elevations with more temperate climates. We estimate that some areas could lose over 12% productivity by 2099. Comparing climate change impacts across cities, Mombasa, Kenya, is projected to suffer most, losing 13% of its labor productivity. Cities above 1500 m in elevation showed almost no productivity loss by the end of the century. Increased heat stress projected from climate change will pose added risk to workers and labor production in lower elevation settings across East Africa. Key words: Climate change, occupational health, Sub-Saharan Africa, health impacts, heat stress, WBGT.
Highlights
The consequences of global climate change have continued to become more apparent since the early 20th century, in the backdrop of rapid industrialization, expanding economies, and continued population growth (Patz et al, 2005)
RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, work losses varied by region
While large swathes of Ethiopia are semi-arid or desert climate zones, much of the country is at high elevation, and we find only ~1.3% productivity loss by the end of the century for high-intensity work (Figure 1)
Summary
The consequences of global climate change have continued to become more apparent since the early 20th century, in the backdrop of rapid industrialization, expanding economies, and continued population growth (Patz et al, 2005). To better understand regional variation of potential productivity losses due to climate change, we study select cities with varying geographic and climate conditions (Table 2). Workers in these countries who carry out various forms of manual labor outdoors (in sun or shade) or work indoors without air conditioning are the most vulnerable and may be forced to considerably reduce their work time because of the heat (Kjellstrom et al, 2016; Nilsson and Kjellstrom, 2010). We compared across countries within East Africa with markedly different elevations to assess risks from climate change on worker heat stress and potential losses in labor productivity
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