Abstract
Rebecca M. Quinones and Peter B. Moyle doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2014v12iss3art3 Climate change is expected to progressively shift the freshwater environments of the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) to states that favor alien fishes over native species. Native species likely will have more limited distributions and some may be extirpated. Stream-dependent species may decline as portions of streams dry or become warmer due to lower flows and increased air temperatures. However, factors other than climate change may pose a more immediate threat to native fishes. Comparison of regional vs. statewide vulnerability (baseline and climate change) scores suggests that a higher proportion (56% vs. 50%) of SFBA native species, as compared to the state’s entire fish fauna, are vulnerable to existing anthropogenic threats that result in habitat degradation. In comparison, a smaller proportion of SFBA native species are vulnerable to predicted climate change effects (67% vs. 82%). In the SFBA, adverse effects from climate change likely come second to estuarine alteration, agriculture, and dams. However, the relative effect of climate change on species likely will grow in an increasingly warmer and drier California. Maintaining representative assemblages of native fishes may require providing flow regimes downstream from dams that reflect more natural hydrographs, extensive riparian, stream, and estuarine habitat restoration, and other management actions, such as modification of hatchery operations.
Highlights
We suggested that a majority of California’s native inland fishes will be hastened to extinction by climate change effects on already deteriorating populations (Moyle et al 2013)
Coho salmon and coastrange sculpin were historically uncommon in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA), but thicktail chub and Sacramento perch were once among the most abundant species (Moyle 2002; Leidy 2007). Another goal of this paper is to evaluate the threats that native fishes face in the SFBA
We evaluated major threats (a.k.a. anthropogenic causes of decline) to native fishes in SFBA as in Moyle et al (2011)
Summary
We suggested that a majority of California’s native inland (largely freshwater) fishes will be hastened to extinction by climate change effects on already deteriorating populations (Moyle et al 2013). We presented a methodology to systematically evaluate vulnerability to extinction or extirpation as a result of baseline conditions (i.e., existing anthropogenic threats) and to new conditions created by climate change (e.g., warmer temperatures, altered stream flows). Existing threats to freshwater fishes (as defined in Moyle 2002) differ among regions of the state. We rate baseline, climate change, and overall vulnerabilities (as in Moyle et al 2013) of freshwater fishes in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA), as the first in a series of analyses to address vulnerability to extinction of SAN FRANCISCO ESTUARY & WATERSHED SCIENCE freshwater fishes in different regions of the state. We define SFBA to include all tidally influenced freshwater habitats (e.g., Cache Slough) and streams flowing into the San Francisco Estuary (estuary) and Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta)
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