Abstract
This study was to investigate the temporal evolution of body mass index (BMI) in young enlisted men of 18 years in Brazil between 1980 and 2005, to identify specific points of greatest variance in time series and compare specific points in time, and the temporal evolution of BMI with socioeconomic changes in Brazil. The present study explores a temporal series of twenty-six national surveys of Brazilian men enlisted between 1980 and 2005. Heteroscedasticity in BMI time series was tested using Engle’s Lagrange-multiplier (LM) test, and analyses were performed using the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model. As possible explanations for these increases in mean BMI, changes in economic indicators were considered. Particularly in 1985 to 1986 and 1994 to 1995, there was a sharp and significant increase in BMI. These two points occurred after two major economic policy changes that increased the purchasing power of the population related to economics factors such as: reducing the level of social inequality, increased family income, poverty reduction, inflation control, and increased consumption of foods. The present study showed a sharp increase of obesity in the population of young men in Brazil on two occasions during this series (years 1985 to 1986 and 1994 to 19955), when a possible reduction in caloric expenditure and increased food consumption population were observed. Key words: Temporal trends, body mass index, obesity, Brazil.
Highlights
IntroductionModernization, and urbanization have been associated to obesity (Staudigel, 2011; Peracchi and Arcaleni, 2011)
Trends of increasing overweight and obesity are well documented in both developed countries for example, United States (Komlos and Brabec, 2010; Burkhauser et al, 2009), France, Japan (Yoshiike et al, 2002) and developing countries for example, Brazil (Wang et al, 2002) and Mexico (Rivera et al, 2004) but few studies have used time series with more frequent data collection points on weight change, which would allow testing, whether specific points in time are associated with more substantial increases in the rates of overweight and obesity
We identified turning points in the body mass index (BMI) curve in 1985 and 1994 and identified changes in the Brazilian economy of possible factors are corresponding in time with increased BMI
Summary
Modernization, and urbanization have been associated to obesity (Staudigel, 2011; Peracchi and Arcaleni, 2011) Economic factors such as greater purchasing power of poor families (Lignani et al, 2011), low food prices (Christian and Rashad, 2009; Rashad, 2006), technological modernization (Lakdawalla and Philipson, 2009), increased family income (Fowler et al, 2005) are associated with dietary patterns of populations, in developing countries, resulting in increased obesity (Mendez and Popkin, 2004; Ulijaszek and Koziel, 2007). Data from enlisted men have been used to describe the prevalence of overweight in Israel (Gross et al, 2009) and the United States (Hsu et al, 2007) These data are usually collected annually they are a
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