Abstract
This study investigates the patterns of land use change, the reasons for those changes and the vulnerability of forests in Nandi North forest zone in Kenya between the years 1986 to 1995 and 1995 to 2006. Landsat TM images of 1986, 1995 and ETM+ of 2006 were used to create single image depicting the sequence of land use change for the period between 1986 and 2006. The spatial relationship between forest cover change and the causes was determined based on the ground truthing and additional literature from the zonal forest officer and the zone management plan where a total of seven classes including dense natural forest, sparse forest, grassland, agricultural land, plantation forest, tea plantation and built up area was used for classification. Both unsupervised and supervised classifications were carried out using a false colour composite image for interpretation. Out of the seven classes, the results indicate an increase in agriculture over the study period while natural forests were reducing. Extreme poverty, planned deforestation for development needs, and unsustainable forest practices such as illegal logging, charcoal burning and encroachment were seen as key drivers of land use change as indicated by the information from the officer. Accessibility to the forest was a key threat to the existence of the forest. This is seen in the result where forest zones with gentle slopes and flat areas, lower elevation, close to roads and settlement had higher probability for conversion to other land uses due to easier access to them compared to steep slopes, with high elevation and which are from roads and settlement. The resulting vulnerability map categorized the forest into four degrees of varying vulnerability namely: highly vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, vulnerable and least vulnerable starting from the easily accessible to least accessible. The resultant map is important in forest conservation by the forest department as areas highly vulnerable can be put into high consideration at the same time involving the community adjacent to be involved in the management process. Key words: Forest cover, LULC, change detection, vulnerability, GIS.
Highlights
Forests and woodlands are significant land cover covering nearly 40% of the total earth’s surface, and are the most biologically diverse ecosystems in the world this is according to WRI, IUCN and UNEP, 1992
Agricultural land occupies the highest area of 70345.98 ha at 66% of the total area of study in 1986 which increases to 72077.67 ha in 1995 to 73929.9 ha in 2006 which is a percentage of 69%
Agriculture which includes all rain fed cultivation is the highest land use type followed by natural forest and sparse forest with grassland
Summary
Forests and woodlands are significant land cover covering nearly 40% of the total earth’s surface, and are the most biologically diverse ecosystems in the world this is according to WRI, IUCN and UNEP, 1992. Tropics, forest resources are very vital in sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. These roles range from maintaining the ecological balance, providing fuel wood, habitat to important wildlife, soil and water conservation and purification of air. For several centuries the world‘s forests have been under strain due to escalating human population (UNEP, 2001) These activities have resulted in loss of biodiversity, degradation of water catchments and increase in greenhouse gases which have far reaching effects. This has been blamed on poor monitoring and rule enforcement embedded in the institutions of management (Ayhan et al, 2004)
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