Abstract

In this study, farmers’ perceptions and adaptation options to climate variability and change were assessed in the Bilate watershed of south central Ethiopia. The determinant factors that influence the choice of farmers to climate change and variability adaptation were also investigated. Above 92% of the surveyed farm households perceived variability and change in climatic variables. Based on the data from 270 households, 59% of the households participated in one or the other way of the six major adaptation strategies which most prevailed inside farmers of the watershed. Changing the crop variety, using water harvesting scheme, intensifying irrigation, using cover crop or/and mulching, reducing the number of livestock owned and getting off-farm job are the main adaptation strategies used by the farming households. The results from the binary logistic model further showed that age and educational level of the household head, farm size and the income level of the household are household characteristics that significantly affect the choice of adaptation options, while access to climate information in the form of seasonal forecast and local agro ecology are other factors that determined the selection of adaptation methods by the farming households in the study area. The main constraints to adaptation to climate change in the study area are seen to be knowledge gap in the form of lack of information, shortage of labour and minimal land sizes which are the three most explained constraints to climate change as explained by responding household heads. Key words: Climate variability and change, perception, binary logistic model.

Highlights

  • Climate change is defined statistically as significant variation in either mean state of the climate or its variability which persists for an extended period typically decades or longer

  • The overall percentage of accurate predictions for the models varies between 82 and 92% which shows only few cases are classified incorrectly and all the models selected for this study can fairly estimate the factors affecting the use of different adaptation methods in the study area

  • The farming household’s perception on these climatic events is crucial to counteract the changes from the norm. 73% of the farmers perceived that the onset of rainfall in the area in the last 5 years is delayed, 27% said it is starting on time and no one has perceived it to begin earlier than the usual. 71% of the responding farmers perceived that rainfall in the area ends sooner than the usual

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Summary

Introduction

Climate change is defined statistically as significant variation in either mean state of the climate or its variability which persists for an extended period typically decades or longer. Agriculture affects climate change, which means higher temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased rainfall variability reduce crop yield and threaten food security in low income and agriculture-. Adaptation to climate change is getting global attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher, because it can no longer be ignored (Wilbanks and Kates, 2010). Adapting to climate variability and change has been part of human practice for long period and the historical record includes many cases of successful adaptations (Wilbanks and Kates, 2010)

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