Abstract
This research used FAO statistical data to test the causality between production, area and yield for Sudan’s three major food crops; sorghum, wheat and millet. Results indicated a sizable gap in yield between Sudan and some selected top producing countries for the selected crops. Two-way causality was observed from production to area and vice versa for sorghum crops, accentuating horizontal expansion, while the lack of causality observed from yield to output omitted the impact of vertical expansion. The non existence of any causality for wheat crops indicates the exclusion of both vertical and horizontal expansion, a result that could be explained by the unsuitability of the Sudanese climate for wheat growth. Causality results for the millet crop suggest the absence of causality between production, area and yield in all directions, which can be attributed to low yield, which is itself due to the lack of recommended technical packages required for enhanced production. The research recommends emphasis on vertical expansion to develop plans for sustainable agriculture in Sudan. Further recommendations focus on upgrading the efficiency of current agricultural production systems through the application of appropriate technological packages. Regarding the wheat crop, the study recommends in-depth integrated research on comparative advantage, developing heat-tolerant varieties and the economic feasibility of growing wheat in Sudan. Key words: Cereals, climate change, yield gap, technological packages, sustainable agriculture, final prediction error.  
Highlights
FAO (2006) defined the multidimensional nature of food security captured by availability, accessibility, food use and stability
The results indicated that some regions in Nigeria, Sudan and Angola where a large number of people currently suffer under nutrition might be able to increase their food security status through increasing purchasing power
Results of the Dickey-Fuller test proved the nonstationarity of the data for the three selected food crops.To determine the lag structure of all variables, onedimensional autoregressive regressions were estimated using an upper limit of five lags for each variable
Summary
FAO (2006) defined the multidimensional nature of food security captured by availability, accessibility, food use and stability. To overcome food insecurity, (FAO, 2006) emphasized rural development productivity enhancements, including improved food production by small-scale farmers. Knox et al (2012)adopted an organized review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original published articles to assess the anticipated impacts of climate change on the harvest of major crops in South Asia and Africa. The anticipated mean changeby the 2050s in the harvest of all crops, in both regions, is 8%. Across Africa, mean yield changes of 17% for wheat, 5% for maize, 15% for sorghum and 10% for millet are projected. Signal of vigorous impact of climate change on crop harvest in Africa and South Asia is for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, with an anticipated negative impact on food security
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