Abstract
Climatic envelope modeling techniques implemented in two algorithms, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP) and bioclimatic variables (BIOCLIM) were used to assess effects of climatic conditions on distributions of plants and anticipate how climate would have delimited their distribution under future conditions using a liana species Chasmanthera dependens as a case example. In all, 120 geo-referenced plant records generated from fieldwork and drawn from data served by the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Environmental variables were derived from monthly temperature and rainfall data from WorldClim; eliminating environmental variables with correlations of 0.75 and left eight (8) variables for analysis. Results show that the current suitable range (ecological niche) of the model plant was broad across the tropical rain forest regions. Predictions to future climate scenarios (2050), predicted a significant reduction of suitable distributional areas for the species suggesting possible loss of plant species. Indeed, ex-situ conservation may be the most appropriate conservation tool for this species and others in similar situations. Key words: Bioclimatic variables (BIOCLIM), climate change, conservation, ecological niche models, genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP).
Highlights
Viéet al. (2008) have reported that the numbers of threatened species are on the increase every year; and more attention needs to be given to them in the light of emerging issues of climatic change
Using model plant C. dependens Hochst (Menispermaceae) in West Africa, we present ecological niche models (ENM) which were used to determine the potential distribution of the species across West Africa, predict future distribution patterns and use these models to develop conservation planning priorities
According to Hernandez et al(2006), the ability to estimate ecological niches effectively is influenced strongly by species’ ecological characteristics independent of sample size and models built with few points, while not as accurate as those based on large data sets and potentially not appropriate for all applications, can still be useful (Hernandez et al, 2006)
Summary
Viéet al. (2008) have reported that the numbers of threatened species are on the increase every year; and more attention needs to be given to them in the light of emerging issues of climatic change. Moritz et al(2008) have reported the impacts of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National in the USA while Rubidge et al (2012) has reported that climate-induced range contraction drives genetic erosion in alpine mammals These changes in environmental conditions can rapidly shift allele frequencies in populations of species with relatively short generation times causing a decrease in their populations (Hoffmann and Willi, 2008). The most important tools in conservation planning with respect to climate change according to Elith and Leathwick (2009) should be the deployment of species distribution models which will evaluate present and potential future species ranges in relation to climate, soils and other predictive variables These models according to Thuiller et al (2005), can highlight individual species that may be at risk because of climate change, and geographic areas that may face substantial shifts in diversity and species composition (Williams et al, 2005; Loarie et al, 2009). Using model plant C. dependens Hochst (Menispermaceae) in West Africa, we present ecological niche models (ENM) which were used to determine the potential distribution of the species across West Africa, predict future distribution patterns and use these models to develop conservation planning priorities
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