Abstract
Following a series of deadly tornadoes between 2011, this paper develops a numerical tool to help communities better predict and quantify the potential tornado damage to single-family residential structures from a tornado strike. The objective is to determine the predictive capability of an engineering-based tornado damage-assessment (ETDA) Tool using published building damage observations captured by the authors in two recent tornadoes. The research is motivated by the need for the public to visualize the extent of tornado vulnerabilities of residential buildings in our communities. The research developed a numerical estimation model to aggregate damage that a specified tornado would cause to the residential wood-framed structures in a community. The ETDA Tool was developed around a Monte Carlo simulation engine, using theoretical models for tornado wind velocity and pressure drop in the tornado vortex, as well as experimentally-determined probability distribution functions for the structural resistances of eight building component systems selected to describe the structure. The output of the EDTA Tool is presented as series of mean damage ratios, and other statistics quantifying tornado-damage caused plotted against distance away from the tornado vortex centerline. The paper explains the methodology of the approach and present results comparing hindcast damage ratios against observed values of field-observations collected after a tornado strike on residential communities in Garland/Rowlett, TX. It was found the ETDA Tool provides reasonable agreement with the field damage observations to houses. The Tool could be used by a community to model any tornado path and/or size and estimate future damage. More research to further our understanding of tornado-induced wind loads and wind-borne debris effects are needed to increase confidence in its application to any tornado and any city.
Highlights
In the United States, 2011 was an outlier tornado year in which 1,700 tornadoes occurred with 560 tornado-related deaths
The objective of this paper is to develop and determine the predictive capability of an engineering-based tornado damageassessment (ETDA) Tool using published building damage observations captured by the authors in two recent tornadoes (Prevatt et al, 2013, 2016)
The performance of the engineering-based tornado damage-assessment (ETDA) Tool is evaluated by comparing building component-level damage ratios estimated by the ETDA Tool estimated damage ratios against observed damage ratios
Summary
In the United States, 2011 was an outlier tornado year in which 1,700 tornadoes occurred with 560 tornado-related deaths. The engineering community is aware of the appropriate structural details necessary to mitigate tornado damage (Prevatt et al, 2012b; Roueche et al, 2015; Ramseyer et al, 2016) Such provisions are not implemented widely enough to impact the level of tornado damage caused to residential buildings, which remains disproportionately high. These models estimate building damage using engineering models of the hurricane, and probabilistic data on the structural capacity of buildings within the hurricane’s path These models are essential for predicting future risks and impacts of hazard events on communities and they are used to evaluate the benefits and costs of strengthened infrastructure, and communicate this damage potential to the public, insurance providers, and other stakeholders. It is of value to develop a tornado-damage model that predicts damage at the individual building scale, such that outputs can be used to validate existing engineering models as well as inform the public of fine-scale potential damage scenarios
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