EnergyScope Pathway: An open-source model to optimise the energy transition pathways of a regional whole-energy system

Abstract

Due to the imperative nature of addressing climate change, the energy transition is currently underway, prompting the recognition of its urgency. Energy system optimisation models have emerged as crucial tools to assist policymakers in formulating laws and regulations that facilitate the transition towards carbon neutrality. While numerous models have been developed to explore various scenarios and define long-term objectives, only a few models focus on optimising the specific pathway to achieve these objectives. Many existing models lack the necessary time resolution to capture the integration of intermittent renewable energies; or are not open-source, creating a challenge in terms of transparency and reproducibility.This paper introduces EnergyScope Pathway, an open-source and documented model that addresses these limitations. It specifically optimises investment strategies for the whole-energy system over a 30-year period, or more, and optimising its hourly operation. This approach allows for a comprehensive evaluation of the effective integration of intermittent renewable energy sources. The model has a concise and efficient formulation, enabling its execution on personal laptops within approximately 15 min. By applying the model to the case study of Belgium, which presents challenges due to limited potential for renewable energy, we illustrate the importance of four pillars: energy efficiency, renewable energies, sector coupling, electrification and imports. The result pave the way to a new and incremental tool to support decision makers. In comparison to non open-source models, we verified the model’s results with similar studies and found consistency in terms of technico-economic estimations.