Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Poland from 2000 to 2018: An LMDI Decomposition Analysis Perspective

Abstract

Purpose: The primary purpose of this paper is to carry out a multidimensional analysis of determinants of changes to GHG emissions in Poland between 2000 and 2018. This study found that GHG emissions generally followed an upward trend over the study period, although deviations in different directions were recorded in some years. This means that shifting to a low-carbon economy-as a way to counteract climate warming-poses a considerable challenge to Poland. It becomes imperative as the EU has intensified its measures taken to become climate-neutral. Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper contributes to research on climate change drivers related to energy use. The analysis was based on descriptive statistics and decomposition methods. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), one of the most widely adopted forms of index decomposition analysis, was employed to identify the determinants of GHG emissions. This was based on the additive specification. Findings: This study identified rapid economic growth—and the corresponding increase in energy consumption primarily derived from fossil fuels, mainly including coal and lignite—as the main reason behind the increase in GHG emissions in Poland between 2000 and 2018. Moreover, it follows from the decomposition analysis that the reduction in GHG emissions was due to a decrease in GHG emissions per unit of energy, improvements in fuel conversion efficiency, a reduction in final energy consumption per unit of GDP, and a small extent-by population change. However, the positive impact of these factors on GHG reduction was smaller than the negative impact of economic growth. As a consequence of these differences, GHG emissions in Poland followed an upward trend. Practical implications: These considerations could help develop an active energy policy focused on climate neutrality. Originality/value: This document broadens and updates knowledge on the determinants of GHG emissions. Also, these findings can provide grounds for accelerating energy transformation processes in Poland.