Energy Use in Canada: View from the Soft Path

Abstract

This paper focuses on changing energy use and changing analysis of energy use in Canada from the point of view of policy analysis. End-use efficiency for energy has been improving in Canada, though by less than in other countries. However, conventional forecasts of energy use tend to ignore the implications of those gains, and they are therefore either misleading or unduly constraining for purposes of policy development. An alternative approach, which uses a method of analysis called backcasting rather than forecasting, is preferable for policy purposes. A backcasting analysis for Canada shows that significant cuts in absolute energy use are both technically and economically feasible. More broadly, this feasibility analysis demonstrates that there is no specific amount ot type of energy that is “required” for a given GNP nor is there a “base case” for energy use that is anything more than an analytical construct. Rather, there are lots of options, and different scenarios that will get us from one to another. To a very real extent, a developed country gets the level and character of energy use that it chooses.