Energy use and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions drivers in Egypt's economy: Focus on the agricultural sector with a structural decomposition analysis

Abstract

Investigating drivers of energy use and its associated CO2 emissions changes is important for sustainable development. Using input-output structural decomposition analysis, this paper decomposed the energy use and resulting CO2 emissions drivers of changes in Egypt's wide economy, particularly in its agricultural sector, between 1972 and 2014. Fuel sources dominating energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions in the agriculture sector were explicitly identified. Affluence and demographic effects were the dominant drivers at both investigation levels. Household and government final consumption changes and exports expansion were important determinants behind changes in energy use and resulting CO2 emissions at the aggregate level from the final demand destination perspective. In the agricultural sector, petroleum and oil were the dominant fuel types. The technological effect was the main driver restraining energy use growth at the aggregate level. However, technological improvements have not been sufficient to make up for the evolving economy and consumption levels. Conversely, technological changes adversely impacted energy-related CO2 emissions at the economy-wide level, and both considered environmental indicators in the agricultural sector. Overall, upgrading technology and improving the final demand structure will be critical for Egypt to promote decoupling in the future.