Energy transition scenarios in the transportation sector in Brazil: Contributions from the electrical mobility

Abstract

During COP 21, the Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change & Call to Action defined the global goal of reaching 100 million electric vehicles (EV) and 400 million two- or three-wheel vehicles by 2030. As a result, several countries have set national targets for implementing EV as an integral part of low-carbon energy transition. In Brazil, the technological route of biofuels has stood out from the National Alcohol Program (PROALCOOL) in the 1970s to the current National Biofuels Policy (RenovaBio). However, in recent years, the EV market has been gaining a prominent role in business, governmental and academic debates. Thus, this study seeks to analyse the main factors that drive electric mobility in Brazil, from the definition of technical, economic and fiscal parameters, in addition to evaluating hypotheses on the evolution of public policies and prices of EV in the country. Some scenarios were developed to identify the behaviour of the market penetration of EV in the country, based on Bass' technological diffusion model and dynamic systems. Results indicate that the EV purchase price is consolidated as the most relevant variable for the diffusion of electric mobility in Brazil. From the gains derived from economies of scale, a reduction in the price of vehicles is expected given the decrease in the production costs, as well as in price of batteries. We also concluded that the establishment of a regulatory framework and the development of public policies are fundamental to the promotion of electric mobility in the country.