Energy Transition Scenarios for Energy Poverty Alleviation: Analysis of the Delphi Study

Abstract

Energy poverty is a phenomenon that is affecting an increasing number of EU citizens. It occurs when people are unable to buy enough energy to meet their needs at a socially acceptable level. Despite the many efforts and measures taken to prevent this negative phenomenon, the looming energy crisis could exacerbate it. On the one hand, efforts towards energy transition are intended to prevent this phenomenon, but on the other hand, inadequate restraint on the energy market may lead to its escalation. Various scenarios need to be analysed to ensure that the risks associated with energy shortages do not lead to even greater levels of energy poverty, with negative consequences for societies, economies, and the environment. Using a scenario approach and expert research, as well as mathematical–statistical tools, the article presents possible scenarios related to the implementation of measures affecting energy transformation and the transition to renewable energy sources in economies. These measures can change the phenomenon of energy poverty. The results of the analysis conducted in the article showed that there is a relationship between the increase in GDP per capita and the degree of energy consumption from renewable sources. In addition, there is a negative correlation between the degree of use of energy from renewable sources and the problem of energy poverty, especially in countries with a relatively lower level of GDP per capita. The current economic and political situation requires research in this area and the identification of possible solutions, as energy poverty is becoming a major social problem. The measures taken to promote sustainable development in an energy crisis situation might not be able to be implemented in a highly satisfactory manner.