Energy transition roadmap towards net-zero communities: A case study in Japan

Abstract

Mitigation pathways are critical in achieving carbon neutrality. However, currently most analyses of carbon neutral scenarios are based on solving for macroeconomic costs and optimal energy sharing. However, it remains unclear how the contribution of energy from each of the various technologies and their interactions, change over time. To address this, this study presents an improved “Glocal” Century Energy Environment Planning (G-CEEP) model, with embedded energy technology modules, evaluate different mitigation pathways. The approach introduced here provides a more nuanced understanding of how a broad range of measures can be evaluated at each step. Based on these findings, although it may be challenging, communities can achieve carbon neutrality by using different measures during different stages. Interestingly, although there is consensus that renewable energy sources contribute the most to decarbonization, communities need to engage in discussion about how to utilize renewable energy. Furthermore, imported energy sources could become the dominant clean energy source for 2022–2028, providing a transition between low-cost on-site energy sources and high-cost technologies based on biomass and hydrogen. And implementation of hydrogen- and biomass- based sources requires the window period for establishing a supply chain and reducing costs.