Energy Transition and Sustainable Road Transportation in Turkey: Multiple Policy Challenges for Inclusive Change

Clean and low-carbon energy sources and technologies have emerged as a critical driver in delivering the energy transition and achieving net zero-carbon emissions. All energy sources and power systems produce greenhouse gases (GHGs) and hence they contribute to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and resultant climate change besides contributing to other negative environmental impacts. Energy sustainability remains a major challenge globally due to current heavy reliance on depletable and polluting fossil fuels for most of global energy needs. This study examines the energy transition strategies and proposes a roadmap for sustainable energy transition for sustainable energy planning and grid electricity generation and supply in wake of commitments made by the world community to the Paris Agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting the rise in global average temperature to 2oC and preferably 1.5oC above the preindustrial level and realisation of the sustainable development goal of the United Nations. The sustainable transition strategies typically consist of three major technological changes namely, energy savings on the demand side, generation efficiency at production level and fossil fuel substitution by various renewable energy sources and low carbon non-renewable sources like nuclear power and carbon emission reduction strategies like carbon capture and sequestration and a conversion from high carbon fossil fuels like coal and oil to natural gas which remains the cleanest fossil fuel. The study demonstrated that decentralised generation with application of both demand side management and behind the meter management (BTM) strategies are effective measures to increase the use of renewable energy resources which are often locally available leading to higher uptake of renewable energy sources and conversion of consumers to prosumers making the transition economically sustainable. Waste to energy options have a significant potential to contribute to the energy transition e.g. use of biowaste for biogas production, slaughterhouse waste biodigestion for biogas and electricity generation and waste treatment and disposal, waste heat recovery from used geothermal for extra power generation and reinjection to improve the reservoir sustainability and use of bagasse and sugarcane trash for grid-based power production in sugar factories. Therefore, domestic, and industrial scale waste to energy conversion can enhance the economic sustainability of waste management process by offering useful energy substitutes for fossil fuels and enhanced energy security through decentralisation of generation. Whereas sustainable development has social, economic, and environmental pillars, energy sustainability is best analysed by five-dimensional approach consisting of environmental, economic, social, technical, and institutional/political sustainability to determine energy resource sustainability. The study recommends the adoption of sustainability-based planning for energy development and optimisation of electricity generation and supply where energy sources are analysed and ranked based on the five dimensions of energy sustainability instead of Least Cost Development Planning (LCDP) often applied by many countries. On this basis, the sustainable energy transition and optimisation of power generation will rely on both renewable and non-renewable energy since both have an important role in the realisation of the energy transition plans even though the desire is to shift entirely to renewable energy sources by the year 2050. The sustainability of various energy sources was assessed with hydrogen, wind, solar, sugarcane bagasse and cane trash, biogas and ocean energy technologies proving to be among the most sustainable renewable energy and sustainable sources. The study also examined various power plants and energy conversion systems for electricity generation in terms of their specific role and potential in grid-based power generation with hydro power plants, geothermal, nuclear, fuel cells, raking high on performance indicators like load and capacity factors making them ideal for base load power supply. Diesel engines and gas turbines using cogeneration and dual cycle systems powered by cleaner fuels like natural gas, hydrogen and biomethane will play an important role in supplying intermediate and peak load power. The study highlighted enabling technologies and concepts in the energy transition which include decentralisation of generation, cogeneration and trigeneration, demand side and behind the meter management microgrids and smart grid technologies, energy and generation planning and optimisation models, energy storage, electrification of transport and use of electric cars as decentralised electricity sources through the V2X technologies like the G2V and V2G, and carbon capture and sequestration for emissions reduction in fossil fuel power plants making them more sustainable. The study classifies electric vehicles as distributed power plants and variable loads with extensive use of energy storage while sugar cane bagasse is noted as a sustainable energy resource for power generation by cane sugar factories by application of more efficient grid connected cogeneration power plants. The study identified long project gestation period as the main factor limiting nuclear and geothermal energy deployment and recommends the adoption of modularised wellhead generators and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) as a solution to enhance exploitation of these sustainable energy and technologies through faster deployment with high degree of flexibility. Biogas and biomethane demonstrated significant potential as renewable energy sources for power generation and substitute fuels in all applications of fossil natural gas. The study recommends sustainability-based planning for the energy sector and power generation and use of both renewable and non-renewable but sustainable sources of energy, adoption of smart energy concept by all sectors and investment in energy technology and infrastructure development for hydrogen and other promising energy sources like ocean thermal, wave and tidal energy and the conversion of the transition from the traditional to smart grid systems and a shift from centralised to decentralised power generation. Since the transport sector accounts for a significant portion of the global greenhouse gas emissions, electrification of the transport sector and coupling with the power sector is a key strategy recommended for the transition with the smart grid and microgrids playing an enabling role. Since energy sources and generation technologies have associated emissions occurring at different sections of the lifecycle, the use of lifecycle costs and emissions are helpful in long term energy and generation planning which demonstrate that renewable sources and nuclear are the most sustainable when analysed within the five dimensions of energy sustainability, but with the non-renewable sources playing a critical role as dispatchable sources for sustainable grid power generation, while the smart grids and use of energy storage can increase the uptake of variable renewables to as high as 95% to 100% up from a low of 20-25% uptake of variable renewables with the traditional grid. This will significantly help the world in achieving the global emissions and climate targets as. stipulated in the Paris Agreement as well as the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Graphical Abstract The overall objective of the study was to provide solutions to build global energy systems based on renewable and sustainable energy resources and optimise power generation and consumption by use of sustainable energy resources and generation technologies based on the five dimensions of energy sustainability. A sustainable energy system should intergrade electricity and other sectors through smart electricity grids, smart gas grids and smart heat grids as demonstrated below.

The maritime shipping industry accounts for 3 % of global greenhouse gas emissions and delivers 90 % of globally traded goods. Maritime shipping is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. There is increasing policy pressure to cut emissions to achieve the Paris Agreement and to meet decarbonization targets.This paper aims to analyze sector coupling for decarbonization and sustainable energy transitions in maritime shipping, exploring the interlinkages between the transport, energy, industry, agriculture and forestry sectors. First, this paper analyses the opportunities and barriers for sector coupling between the maritime shipping sector and other industries. Second, this paper adds new knowledge on the wider implications of sustainable energy transitions and decarbonization for the maritime shipping sector, the role of various stakeholders in supporting or impeding sustainable energy transitions, policy issues at the international, regional and national level and the links to sector coupling.This research uses a mixed methods approach, applying both qualitative research including interviews and quantitative energy modeling. The research thereby links theories from sustainability transitions with techno-economic modeling approaches.Our research finds that the sector couplings between the transport, energy, industry, agriculture and forestry sectors are of growing importance as maritime shipping is transitioning towards decarbonized and renewable marine fuels. At the same time there is competition for scarce natural resources with other sectors, including aviation and road transport. Socio-technical aspects, particularly of financial and political nature, are key factors that determine the speed and direction of the transition, yet they remain under-explored.

Driving a sustainable road transportation transformation

Road transport is vital to economic development, trade, and social integration. However, such transport is also responsible for the majority of negative impacts on the environment and society. To achieve sustainable development, a country increasingly needs to assess its undesirable costs to determine its road transport policy. In this study, total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and the number of fatalities in the European road transport system were selected to represent the level of sustainable development in each member–state of the European Union. With data from 1995 to 2007, the extent to which the 27 European Union countries improved their productivity on sustainable road transport was evaluated on the basis of data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity index. The Malmquist productivity index measures productivity change over time and can be further broken down into two components: change in efficiency and technical change. The results showed considerable progress toward sustainable road transport in Europe during this period. The breakdown into the two components further revealed that the bulk of the improvement was attained through the adoption of productivity-enhancing new technologies throughout the road transport sector rather than through the lessening of the difference between relatively inefficient countries and efficient ones. In addition, the growth in both aspects slowed in 2007; this aspect implied that the momentum of further improvement was in danger of being lost and that new impetus was needed.

Road transport is vital to the economic development, trade and social integration. However, it is also responsible for the majority of negative impacts on environment and society. To achieve sustainable development, there is a growing need for a country to assess its undesirable costs so as to determine its road transport policy. In this study, total energy consumption, greenhouse gase missions, as well as safety issues in European road transport are selected representing the level of sustainable development in each member state of the European Union (EU).With data from the period of 1995-2007, the extent to which the 27 EU countries have improved their ‘productivity’ on sustainable road transport is evaluated based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist productivity index. In particular, an adjusted DEA-based Malmquist productivity index is proposed to measure the changes in the undesirable impacts over time, which further decomposes into two components: the change in efficiency and the technical change. The results show a considerable progress towards sustainable road transport in Europe during this period. However, the development indifferent countries were unbalanced. Some of them were even deteriorating. For those underperforming countries, specific benchmarks are indicated based on the model results, and challenging targets are assigned by learning from their benchmarks. Moreover, the decomposition into the two components further reveals that the bulk of the improvement was attained through the adoption of productivity-enhancing new technologies throughout the road transport sector, rather than through the relatively inefficient countries catching up with those efficient ones. In addition, the growth in both two aspects slowed down in 2007, which implies that the momentum of further improvement is in danger of being lost so that new impetus is needed.

With the increasing urgency for sustainable development and energy transition, decision-makers face complex challenges in evaluating and prioritizing viable alternatives. Traditional decision-making techniques often struggle to capture the inherent uncertainty and imprecision associated with the latest sustainable energy transition issues. This paper presents a research framework based on fuzzy set theory and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method to address these complexities and uncertainties. Our proposed approach offers a comprehensive evaluation and ranking of alternatives for sustainable energy transition. To demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of this system, we employ a case study in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). As a global leader in fossil fuel production and export, particularly oil, the KSA has recognized the need to address climate change and diversify its energy sector. By leveraging the fuzzy TOPSIS-based framework, we provide decision-makers with a powerful tool to navigate the challenges and uncertainties involved in the energy transition process. This research yields promising results, demonstrating the superior capabilities of the proposed fuzzy TOPSIS-based framework compared to traditional decision-making techniques. The case study in the KSA highlights how our approach effectively captures and addresses the uncertainties and complexities involved in sustainable energy transition decision making. Through comprehensive evaluations and rankings, decision-makers gain valuable insights into alternative solutions, facilitating informed and strategic decision-making processes. Our research contributes to sustainable energy transitions by introducing a robust decision-making framework that integrates fuzzy set theory and the TOPSIS method. Based on the fuzzy TOPSIS-based evaluation, the research findings indicate that solar energy (EA1) ranked as the most favourable alternative among the evaluated options for the sustainable energy transition in the KSA. Using our framework, stakeholders in the KSA and similar contexts can make informed decisions to accelerate their energy transition efforts and achieve sustainable development goals.

The paper gives special attention on long distance passenger transport and specific emissions related to different transport modes, particularly road and air transport sector. The goal of this research is creation and selection of appropriate methodology for modelling the cost estimation of GHG emissions in road and air transport sector for Republic of Serbia as well as the application of the methodology regarding to detailed calculation by transport mode and sub modes. Input data for road transport sector refer to the 2013 and include road and traffic conditions on the road network. Input data for air transport sector are related to the 2014 and international airport ‘Nikola Tesla’ Belgrade as the main hub point with the highest recorded number of aircraft operations in the Western Balkan countries. The obtained results reveal that, due to realized transport volume, diesel cars have the largest share of the costs of GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions within the passenger long distance road transport. Cost estimates of CO2 emissions in the air transport sector shows that A319 aircraft type have the major share in total costs. The reasons are twofold: first, a high level of Landing and Take-Off (LTO) emission factor for CO2 and second, largest number of LTO cycles.

Energy transition is a national agenda, prioritised in many countries, to ensure public safety and achieve climate goals. Although enacting laws is a critical means of realising energy transition policy, legal scholarship has paid little to no attention to the role of law in a sustainable energy transition. Countries are currently experimenting with their legal frameworks to achieve sustainable and smooth energy transition policies that are most beneficial. The pivotal role of law in energy transition has led researchers to place a growing emphasis on introducing and analysing the recently enacted domestic laws in various countries, seeking implications and insights in this regard. This study draws on the example of Korea’s legal framework for energy transition to argue that the voluntary nature of this agreement between the government and operator would have policy implications for many countries striving towards sustainable energy transitions. Unlike numerous other countries (eg Germany) that unilaterally force early closure of nuclear power plants by law, Korea tries to innovatively establish legal grounds that enable a voluntary agreement between the government and operators and the considerable efforts on just transition, while the government commits to contributex to bearing the costs of energy transition.

Dependence on road transport, private passenger cars, and related infrastructure defines mobility in sparsely populated European areas. The ambitious goal of the European Union to reach sustainability in the road transport sector has therefore strong implications for mobility and accessibility in these regions. Nevertheless, sparsely populated areas have received less attention than urban areas in sustainability transitions research.This article highlights the context-specificity of sustainability transitions through a qualitative case study. The Region of Finnish Lapland stands as an example of a sparsely populated region, where sustainability goals set in the Green Deal of the European Union are to be met in the road transport system. The aim is to (a) find out barriers, which obstruct the transition process in Lapland, (b) point out potential future risks and (c) describe, what implications this has for sparsely populated areas in Europe in general. Analysis of barriers and risks is based on 13 thematic interviews and five policy documents. The road transport in Lapland is analysed as a socio-technical system, comprising social and technical elements, while the environment is presented as the basis for the system to operate.Findings of the research indicate that the electrification of private passenger cars in sparsely populated areas is problematic and sustainable road transport cannot be reached with a single solution. Highly electrified and digitalised transport system puts sparsely populated areas in an unequal position, due to high car dependency. With sparse infrastructure, inadequate funding, lack of local know-how to fix vehicles and insufficient supply of electricity in remote environments, there is a high risk of deteriorating accessibility in these areas.It is crucial to acknowledge in policy-making that different regions follow different paths of development. This underlines the importance of finding locally suitable solutions in a global transition process and calls for further research.

The economic and health impacts resulting from the greenhouse effect is a major concern in many countries. The transportation sector is one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. Almost 15 percent of the global GHG and over 20 percent of energy-related CO2 emissions are produced by the transportation sector. Quantifying GHG emissions from the road transport sector assists in assessing the existing vehicles’ energy consumptions and in proposing technological interventions for enhancing vehicle efficiency and reducing energy-supply greenhouse gas intensity. This paper aims to develop a model for the projection of GHG emissions from the road transport sector. We consider the Vehicle-Kilometre by Mode (VKM) to Number of Transportation Vehicles (NTV) ratio for the six different modes of transportation. These modes include motorcycles, passenger cars, tractors, single-unit trucks, buses and light trucks data from the North American Transportation Statistics (NATS) online database over a period of 22 years. We use multivariate regression and double exponential approaches to model the projection of GHG emissions. The results indicate that the VKM to NTV ratio for the different transportation modes has a significant effect on GHG emissions, with the coefficient of determination adjusted R2 and R2 values of 89.46% and 91.8%, respectively. This shows that VKM and NTV are the main factors influencing GHG emission growth. The developed model is used to examine various scenarios for introducing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles in the future. If there will be a switch to battery electric vehicles, a 62.2 % reduction in CO2 emissions would occur. The results of this paper will be useful in developing appropriate planning, policies, and strategies to reduce GHG emissions from the road transport sector.

India envisages energy diversification and transition to a cleaner fuel mix for the road transport segment, which contributes to about 75% of the country’s total CO2 emissions from the transport sector. In this pursuit, electric vehicles are pitted as a ‘one size fits all’ solution to all the problems posed by the current fossil fuel-based transport in the country. The current vehicle fleet running in India is dominated by the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)-based products (powered by mainly petrol and diesel), and the trend is likely to continue in the near-to-medium term. Therefore, it is necessary to consider alternate fuels for ICE-based vehicles to achieve decarbonization in India’s road transport sector. This study discusses the ICE-based alternate fuel options (natural gas, auto-gas and hydrogen) in the light of 28 identified parameters under the 4A framework of energy security, encompassing technical availability, resource availability, infrastructure accessibility, price affordability, social acceptability and environmental acceptability. The 4A framework analysis is carried out to assess the large-scale deployability of the alternate fuel options. The learnings from a few prominent global experiences (compressed natural gas in Argentina, liquefied natural gas in China, auto-gas in Turkey, ethanol in Brazil, biodiesel in Indonesia and hydrogen research across the globe) have been imbibed in the mapping of the possibilities in the Indian context, keeping in mind the diverse functional uses of different vehicle segments within the road transport sector. Biofuel blends are deployable in the short term for all vehicles running on conventional petrol or diesel, whereas the expansion of natural gas usage is constrained by the lack of availability and accessibility beyond a few nodes. The energy transition in the freight segment would need a complete overhaul of the ecosystem since hydrogen appears to be the most prominent alternate fuel in the medium-to-long term.

A participatory stakeholder process for evaluating sustainable energy transition scenarios

The aim and objective of this study is to examine the factors influencing sustainable energy transition and climate change in Nigeria and recommend ways to promote sustainable energy transition for policy decisions in Nigeria. There has been a general call for the decarbonization of the global environment. This has necessitated the need for renewable energy and other forms of sustainable energy in developing countries. African governments are passionately disposed to finding a balance between energy transition and energy trilemma. The balance is with respect to energy equity, sustainability, and security However, the African nation of the world are lagging in terms of energy transition and several factors are responsible for the slow speed in energy transition in the Africa. The study adopted qualitative research methodology using literature review. Based on the analysis of literature review in energy transition it has been shown that technically 100 % renewable energy systems have been verified. In order to achieve carbon neutrality, current energy system need to be transformed towards a sustainable energy system or at best quasi sustainable development of petroleum resources. The study findings revealed that there are some barriers to carbon neutrality that presently constrain sustainable energy transition. The study highlighted on the development of an enabling framework that act as counter strategies to overcome the existing barriers and facilitate energy transition to be sustainable. The underlying factors behind sustainable energy transition and de-carbonization are: Financial, technical, energy market and energy policy, support infrastructure, environment/ ecological, legal and regulatory requirements. In conclusion, it is imperative that for a sustainable energy transition and mitigation of climate change in Nigeria, the enabling frame work needed to be reformed.

Regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sectors of the economy for 1998 are shown here. The map also shows the regional carbon intensity measured in tonnes of CO2-equivalent to per million dollars of Real Domestic Product. The share of economic sectors in the total regional GHG emissions depends on the region's economic structure and availability of energy resources. The share of greenhouse gas emissions from power generation is considerable in provinces where electricity is generated based on coal and natural gas (such as Alberta and Saskatchewan) or fossil fuels (such as Ontario). Emissions associated with the industrial sector, which include the fossil-fuel production industries, occupy an important share of total greenhouse gas emissions in almost every province.

Many stakeholders recognize that the transport sector should be a major focus for reducing the emissions of carbon and air pollutants since it is the third largest sector for energy consumption in China. This study analyzed and projected the energy consumption and emissions of CO2 and conventional air pollutants (CO, NOX, SO2, and PM2.5) from four transport sectors (highway, waterway, railway and aviation) based on the LEAP model, compared the emission reduction potentials of different transport sectors under different scenarios in 2020-2060, and finally explored the co-reduction effect for CO2 and the four pollutants under different control measures. The results showed that the CO2 emissions from the transportation sectors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region would increase greatly under the baseline scenario. Estimates indicate that the CO2 emissions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province would increase by 263.72%, 225.87% and 405.43% in 2060, respectively. Under the comprehensive policy scenario, the emission reductions would be 88.78%, 76.86% and 83.20% respectively, and the maximum emission reduction rate of pollutants is expected to reach 78.73%–99.34%. The sectors with major reduction potentials for CO2 and conventional pollutants are the aviation and road transport sectors, which contribute 38.19%–99.85% of the total, respectively. The co-reduction achieved by optimizing the energy structure in the road transport and aviation sectors would be the best. The results of this study can provide a basis for the formulation of low-carbon reduction strategies for the transport sectors in the BTH region.