Energy systems modelling for just transitions

Abstract

Policymaking increasingly targets an energy transition that is not only low cost and low carbon, but also just. While energy system models have been useful policymaking tools towards achieving the first two objectives, it is yet unclear to what extent they can also support a just transition. Here, we review 73 recent energy systems modelling studies using an analytical coding frame and observe a diversity of approaches to account for energy justice. While models do show promise in being able to support a just transition, especially in terms of assessing distributional outcomes, many of the approaches in the literature are poorly connected to current energy justice goals and discourses, decreasing the studies’ policy relevance and leaving policymakers with suboptimal planning support. Based on our results, we suggest eight actions for modellers to increase the policy relevance of their studies, which include more direct engagement with policy and research discourses, developing location-specific case studies, leveraging public participation in the modelling process, and considering asset decommissioning.