Abstract
Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions has become the explicitgoal of many climate-energy policies around the world. Although many studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways, the common features and tradeoffs of energy systems across global scenarios at the point of net-zero CO2 emissions have not yet been evaluated. Here, we examine the energy systems of 177 net-zero scenarios and discuss their long-term technological and regional characteristics in the context of current energy policies. We find that, on average, renewable energy sources account for 60% of primary energy at net-zero (compared to ∼14% today), with slightly less than half of that renewable energy derived from biomass. Meanwhile, electricity makes up approximately half of final energy consumed (compared to ∼20% today), highlighting the extent to which solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels remain prevalent in the scenarios even when emissions reach net-zero. Finally, residual emissions and offsetting negative emissions are not evenly distributed across world regions, which may have important implications for negotiations on burden-sharing, human development, and equity.
Highlights
Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions has become the explicitgoal of many climate-energy policies around the world
The scale of residual emissions, i.e. emissions that are counter-balanced by equivalent carbon sequestration, is important to consider given many feasibility concerns about negative emissions technologies[33,35]
This residual emissions intensity is insensitive to the warming level or the energy intensity of the global economy
Summary
Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions has become the explicitgoal of many climate-energy policies around the world. In the broader context of climate stabilization, the magnitude of global temperature increase is directly proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, such that adding any amount of CO2 to the atmosphere will increase future amounts of warming[2,6] For these reasons, and because it is a clear and absolute target, achieving net-zero emissions is increasingly a goal of energy and emissions policies around the world[3,7,8,9,10]. It is important to note that the scenario ensemble is not a representative sample that can be used to infer likelihood; individual scenarios are plausible given model constraints
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