Abstract
India’s commitment to Paris Climate Change Agreement through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will require the energy system to gradually move away from fossil fuels. The current energy system is witnessing a transformation to achieve these through renewable energy targets and enhanced energy efficiency (EE) actions in all sectors. More stringent global GHG mitigation targets of 2 °C and well below 2 °C regimes would impose further challenges and uncertainties for the Indian energy systems. This paper provides a quantitative assessment using bottom-up optimization model (AIM/Enduse) to assess these until 2050 for meeting carbon mitigation commitments while achieving the national sustainable development goals. Energy transformation trajectories under five scenarios synchronized with climate mitigation regimes are explored—Business As Usual scenario (BAU), NDC scenario, 2 °C scenarios (early and late actions), and well below 2 °C scenario. The key results from the study include (a) coal-based power plants older than 30 years under NDC and older than 20 years for deeper CO2 mitigation will be stranded before their lifetime, (b) increase in renewables of up to 225–280 GW by 2050 will require battery storage with improved integrated smart grid infrastructure, (c) growth in nuclear to 27–32 GW by 2050 is dependent on nuclear supply availability, (d) gradual shift towards electrification in industry, building, and transport sectors, and (e) installation of CCS technologies in power and industry sectors. Cumulative investments of up to 6–8 trillion USD (approximately) will be required during 2015–2030 to implement the actions required to transform the current energy systems in India.
Highlights
The main targets of India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to Paris Climate Change Agreement consist of (a) reduction of emission intensity of its GDP by 33– 35% during 2005–2030, (b) increase in share of non-fossil-based energy resources to 40% of installed electric generation capacity, and (c) creation of an additional cumulative carbon sink of 2.5–3 Gt-CO2e through additional forest and tree cover by 2030 (INDC 2015)
Studies emphasize on GHG mitigation using carbon budget targets as the main goals to be achieved; the underlying assets to reduce GHG emissions differ in every country depending on the major sectors that contribute as sources and sinks of emissions
We explored energy transformation trajectories for India under five scenarios synchronized with climate mitigation regimes—Business As Usual scenario (BAU), NDC scenario, 2 °C scenario, 2 °C scenario, and well below 2 °C scenario8
Summary
The main targets of India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to Paris Climate Change Agreement consist of (a) reduction of emission intensity of its GDP by 33– 35% during 2005–2030, (b) increase in share of non-fossil-based energy resources to 40% of installed electric generation capacity, and (c) creation of an additional cumulative carbon sink of 2.5–3 Gt-CO2e through additional forest and tree cover by 2030 (INDC 2015). National sustainable development targets through implementation of policies which include electricity for all by 2019, 25 million LPG connections by 2019, universal public health and universal primary education, and housing for all by 2022 need considerable increase in energy demand, while carbon mitigation targets demand significant emission reductions by 2030. In India, energy sector (which includes electricity generation, transport, building, agriculture) contributes over 73% of its GHG emissions each year (MOEFCC, 2018). Energy systems transformations would form the bedrock of any GHG mitigation regime for India. Policies and measures to implement these transformations will be multi-fold which could be brought about through innovation (at technology, finance, and policy levels), technology transfer, and adoption accompanied with suitable financial infrastructures
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