Energy System Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract

This review provides an introduction to the scope, application, methodology, and content of energy models used for forecasting future energy market conditions and in the formation and analysis of energy policy. The review of models is intended to illustrate the structure of recent and current efforts by energy system modelers to provide constructive tools for energy system forecasting, planning, and policy analysis. Energy models may be classified as sector models for the supply or demand of a specific energy type; industry market models for the supply and demand of a specific form; energy system models, which include supply and demand for all energy types; and energy/economic models, which encompass the interrelations between the energy sector and the overall economy. Whatever the model type, energy models are used in forecasting and in planning and policy analysis. Energy planning activities include policy planning, or the formation of policy goals that are unconstrained by technology; strategic planning, which involves finding the most suitable path to obtaining a particular policy objective; and tactical or operational planning, which involves the determination of the appropriate steps necessary to implement a particular strategy. All three types of planning and policy analysis are utilized by the various groupsmore » employing energy system models, including regulatory agencies, at both the federal and state government levels; industry product planning and R and D planning groups; and federal agencies concerned with formulating and implementing national energy policy and planning, managing, and evaluating national programs of energy R and D. The variety of models reviewed in this chapter suggests that a broad-ranging capability exists for supporting energy forecasting, planning, and analysis studies. 66 references. (From Summary)« less