Energy System Low-Carbon Transition under Dual-Carbon Goals: The Case of Guangxi, China Using the EnergyPLAN Tool

Abstract

Guangxi is a typical developing region on the southern coast of China. The current issues encountered in the region’s development are that fossil energy accounts for about 80% of the energy structure, fossil fuels are heavily dependent on imports, and the self-sufficiency rate of resources is only 32%. These challenges have created a disparity between the current regional development state and the country’s dual carbon target. Under the premise of comprehensively considering the multi-sectors of electricity, industry, transportation, and heating, this paper presents a study on the energy system transition towards low-carbon development for Guangxi in four steps. Firstly, to demonstrate EnergyPLAN’s capability in energy modeling, a reference scenario for Guangxi is created using official yearbook data from 2020. Then, a short-term scenario is formulated to analyze the development of Guangxi’s energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan. Furthermore, two mid-term scenarios are established, revealing that Guangxi is anticipated to reach its carbon emission peak between 2025 and 2030. Finally, three long-term scenarios are proposed for Guangxi’s energy system for 2050. These scenarios encompass the expansion of photovoltaics, nuclear, and wind power in the electricity system and emission reduction policies in the industrial, transportation, and heating sectors. As a result, compared with the 2020REF scenario, Guangxi can achieve a carbon emission reduction exceeding 57% and the share of non-fossil energy consumption can reach about 70% in the 2050 scenarios, despite a substantial increase in energy consumption, which makes it possible to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060 and to establish an energy system with less than 20% of fossil energy consumption.