Energy system impacts of the Norwegian-Swedish TGC market

Abstract

Purpose– The purpose of this study is to analyze the power market and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission effects of the joint Norwegian–Swedish tradable green certificates (TGCs) market, which is established to support investments according to a 26.4 TWh increased annual renewable electricity generation (REG) by 2020.Design/methodology/approach– The study applies an energy system model with high granularity in time and space, and detailed power system data for the Nordic countries, Germany, The Netherlands and UK.Findings– The results show that the TGC scheme will cause a 8.7-9.3 /MWh reduction in average electricity prices in the Nordic countries. The price decrease will to a limited extent pass through to Germany, The Netherlands and UK. When assuming a low carbon price level, the new REG will reduce annual GHG emissions by 10.9 Mtonnes in 2020, primarily through substitution of German natural gas power. A sensitivity analysis shows that the GHG emission effect of the TGCs is highly sensitive to changes in the carbon price. Investment levels up to a 90 TWh increased REG per year are found to cause increasing GHG emission reductions.Originality/value– The study results signal the importance of taking the TGC policy into account in decision-making processes in the Northern European power system, in particular for market actors in the Nordic area. The authors conclude that the Nordic countries potentially can play a vital role in a future Northern European low carbon power system through export of green balancing power, substitution of thermal power and reduced GHG emissions from the Northern European power sector.